Just to recap, last week I talked about how two key demographic groups chose to vote in 2016: white women and the working class/people without college degrees. Today, I'm going to be talking about the effect of millennials/progressives and moderates on the outcome of the election.
In 2008, Barack Obama had one of the highest turnouts in history of voters who had never cast a vote in a prior election. This group, made up mostly of millennials, built an excited and passionate foundation that Obama had built his support on. So, it isn't surprising that Clinton knew she needed to win their support in order to win the election. But, similarly to how Clinton technically won women, it was turnout that mattered more than anything. Clinton won 55% of the youth vote (as seen in the graphic on the right), but this number is down 5% from Barack Obama. That 5% didn't go to Trump though, it went to 3rd party candidates. Perhaps, this would make sense if more millennials were moderate compared to 2016. But, as I mentioned before, I group millennials and progressives together for a reason.
If we look at voting bases for progressive candidates such as Bernie Sanders, this Washington Post article, and polls done on sheer ideology (such as the one below), we can see that millennials were/are not more moderate than they were in 2008, but rather more left leaning in ideology.
So, why did they vote for 3rd party candidates in higher numbers? I mainly attribute this to the posts surrounding Clinton's personality. The primaries, which brought unexpected Bernie Sanders as a legitimate challenger to Clinton, presented an option of someone as progressive and charismatic as millennials had been looking for following Barack Obama. Clinton's inability to match him in those areas created the "Bernie or Bust" group Clinton would spend the rest of her campaign trying to attract. Similarly, Clinton's personality could never compare to Obama's natural charismatic disposition. Ultimately, when it came to personality, Clinton just wasn't likable in the way millennials expected and wanted. To read more about how this affected turnout in states that matter, I recommend this post/lesson plan from KQED public media.
In the party politics post (accidental alliteration!) I mention that Clinton was unable to prove to millennials that she was progressive enough in the few opportunities she was given. I still believe this is true, but I think there is a question to be begged in that conclusion. If she wasn't progressive enough for millennials, was she moderate enough for the moderate democrats? Certainly that would make sense, but according to statistics that isn't true.
Which brings me to my last group: moderates. Moderates, regardless of race or gender, did not vote for Clinton in the same way they voted for Obama in 2008. Clinton was 52% of the moderate vote, while Barack Obama won 60%. That 8% difference, however, behaved just like the difference in millennial votes. Trump won 40% of the moderate vote, only 1% higher than McCain's 39%. The other 7% went to 3rd party candidates.
I think Clinton's shift back and forth between being left and moderate was hurtful with both millennials and moderates. Barack Obama is known for being more left than a lot of modern Presidents, and in 2008, Clinton was known for being his more moderate counterpart, historically working with conservatives and advocating for conservative legislation such as anti-flag burning laws. Yet, moderates saw her shifting towards the left in 2016, potentially scaring them away from support.
In my Barack Obama post that connected his effects on Trump, I mentioned how crucial Trump's timing was. Americans who had grown dissatisfied with Barack Obama knew that Trump has been opposing him since the beginning of the Birther movement. Clinton, on the other hand, was consistently associated with him, especially in asking him to campaign for her.
And finally, Trump was the answer to many moderates who lean conservative and had been seeking a Republican candidate that wasn't extremely far right. And even though Trump didn't gain a heavy increase in moderate voters compared to McCain, it's clear that he placed doubt in Clinton-supporting moderates who had been looking for a candidate of a different kind.
For more information on the importance of moderates to Trump's success, check out this article!
And finally, my mind map. I will put it here when I have access to a printer! Thanks, as always, for reading and commenting! I can't believe I'm almost done!